One year after the military coup in Myanmar, observers like the Stimson Center (11 February 2022) and - with a particular focus on the country"s ethnic armed groups - International Crisis Group (12 January 2022) - do not expect any great changes to occur in the coming months. This means that hostility and violence targeting minorities (including Christians and churches) will continue as before. World Watch Research analyst Thomas Muller comments: "The analysis carried out by these observers are all too realistic and they may point to a stalemate in which neither side will gain a significant advantage and the general population is left to suffer even more. What makes forecasts particularly difficult is that the number of fighters participating on either side in far from clear and the fighting is not a numbers game anyway, as the Lowy Institute"s Interpreter explained on 17 February 2021. At the same time, efforts to solve or at least contain the conflict have continued, despite all the difficulties: The new ASEAN special envoy, the Cambodian foreign minister, explained that he will try to meet with the opposition National Unity Government as well, after the Cambodian Prime Minister reportedly already gave up on the conflict, being quoted as leaving it for the ASEAN chair of 2023 (Radio Free Asia, 17 February 2022)." Thomas Muller continues: "While it is far from clear whether the next ASEAN chair, Indonesia, will be able to solve the conflict, the situation in Myanmar and ASEAN"s reaction show just how much pressure the ASEAN organization has been experiencing. This might be one of the reasons for the most recent findings of the ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute"s State of Southeast Asia survey, published on 16 February 2022. While Japan still commands the highest level of trust among Southeast Asian leaders, it took a nose-dive from 68.2% in 2021 to 54.2%. Japan traditionally has strong ties with Myanmar and has thus been reluctant to take decisive action. And while China"s economic presence and power is recognized by all survey respondents, 58.1% said they have little or no confidence that China would do the right thing when it comes to global peace, security, prosperity and governance. Nearly half of those expressing distrust feared that China could abuse its economic and military power to threaten their country"s interests and sovereignty. Although the old adage goes that countries do not have friends, but simply interests, it seems that Southeast Asian leaders are clear in realizing that they cannot choose their neighbors, and are reluctant to be forced to choose their friends."