After a series of widespread protests, one of the longest-serving African leaders, Omar al-Bashir, was ousted by the army and arrested on 11 April 2019. According to BBC News reporting on 17 April 2019 he has now been moved from house-arrest to a
maximum security prison. Under pressure from the continuing demonstrations, the military council also
arrested members of the former ruling party and some top government officials, as reported by The Guardian on 20 April 2019.
Yonas Dembele, Persecution analyst at World Watch Research, comments: "This month the situation in Sudan is suddenly full of questions: What does the ousting of al-Bashir mean for Sudanese politics and its people? Will there be a peaceful transition? Will there be a change from the former regime"s policies? Will there be room for opposition political parties to operate? There are also many fears being expressed:
- First, there is much concern about the army now being completely in charge. The army had been the backbone of the brutal regime for the past 30 years and the transition to a new government might not bring about any desired change. It could even mean the extension of the al-Bashir era under a new leader.
- Secondly, as the country has been involved in conflicts and civil war (Darfur, South Kordofan and Blue Nile State), there could be a potential intensification of those conflicts.
- Thirdly and most importantly, there is the possibility that what happened in Egypt in 2012 could now take place in Sudan. The well-established Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt kept a low profile until the rule of Hosni Mubarak collapsed. It then emerged as the sole alternative as well as being the only group with the capability of replacing the old regime, thus hijacking the Arab Spring movement. Could the same happen in Sudan? The organizers of the demonstrations, the Sudanese Professionals" Association (SPA), are demanding that power be transferred to a transitional civilian government, but they have not come up with a roadmap and leadership that can run such a transition."
Yonas Dembele adds: "For Christians in the country there is another layer of challenges: If the transition (in addition to being civilian-led) is not an inclusive transition, there is the risk that religious and other minorities could be further marginalized. This is particularly the danger if Islamists in the country take control of the process."