In a must-read article published on 5 April 2022, Reuters listed which countries are particularly vulnerable to fall-out from the Russian-Ukrainian war. Apart from Pakistan and Sri Lanka (WWR, 13 April 2022), two countries which were struggling well before the war started, the article names several other countries which had already suffered severely under COVID-19 measures and which now might possibly be pushed beyond the brink by the war. Turkey, Tunisia, Egypt, Ghana, Kenya, Jordan, Lebanon (WWR, 13 April 2022) and Morocco are the countries named in the article and their vulnerability is due to energy and food imports such as wheat and maize. According to Reuters, Ukraine and Russia account for 29% of the world's wheat exports and 19% of maize shipments. Prices for wheat and maize have risen 25% - 30% this year. The article also shows a helpful table on the percentage of wheat imports from these two countries, sourced from UNCTAD. World Watch Research (WWR) analyst Thomas Muller comments: "The possibility of bread riots is haunting governments arguably more than the shortage of fuel and energy price hikes. This is also true for China and is an additional reason why the CCP is siding with Russia. An article in The Diplomat, published on 30 March 2022, took a broad sweep looking at the economic relations between the countries, but then specified:

China produces approximately 93 percent of its own wheat, but the remaining 7 percent is still critical to its food security. China consumes all it has, has just had a bad winter wheat harvest, and is banning the sale of wheat for animal feed."

Thomas Muller continues: "This also means that the symbol for (modest) prosperity in China, the ability to eat pork frequently may come under pressure, as pork prizes will soar. In the Diplomat article, the author adds:

China plans to increase its Russian imports, saying that the door is "˜wide open" for Russian wheat. Therein lies China"s dilemma. Were even 5 percent of the Chinese population to be deprived of food made from wheat [e.g. China"s other staple food, noodles; ed.], due to China"s recently reinstated imports from Russia improbably being shut off by the Chinese government in a nod to sanctions, that translates into over 72 million people in China missing out on a staple food. That in turn would not only be a humanitarian disaster but also a political one for the CCP. If oil imports are not sufficient to meet demand, people may get ornery, but they will not starve to death. If food imports dry up, and people begin to be hungry, that would incite social protest and worse."

Thomas Muller adds: "The author of the article then goes on to write:

Almost 200 million people in China today are over 65. That means that the Great Famine [1959-1961] is held within the living memory of a significant portion of the Chinese population, approximately 13.5 percent, according to Chinese figures. Little haunts China more than the idea of impending hunger. As such, China will go to great lengths to protect the stability and security of its food supply. If that means flouting international sanctions against Russia, expect China to do so. No sanction on China could be worse from its perspective than a threat to its food supply and the consequences of not having enough."‚ 

Thomas Muller states in conclusion: "The full article in The Diplomat is entitled China and Russia: The trade ties that bind (and bears a long subtitle: With concerns about food security at home, wheat, not oil, is currently the crux of China's economic interest in Russia). The article is well worth reading in its entirety (but is behind a paywall). In the meantime, with China"s 20^th Party Congress coming up most likely in October or November 2022, which is when President Xi Jinping is set to receive a third term in office, the CCP leadership will be doing everything in its power to keep things calm. Any additional or perceived challenge will be quickly dealt with. In such a politically highly sensitive time, Christians as a minority also have to brace themselves for additional scrutiny from the authorities."